Super Bowl XLIII prediction

Since Super Bowl XVI when I picked the 49ers to beat the Bengals, I've picked who would win and who would lose in the Big Game.

Some years I've picked both the winner and loser as it happened. Other years I've picked one team to win and they end up losing. New England last year and Buffalo twice. I've also picked one team to lose and they end up winning, like New England's win over the Rams and the Broncos over the Packers. Most years I've had as least one team exactly right, either the winner or the loser. Only twice did I get both teams completely wrong. (No, I've never picked the Lions)

So this year it's time for the pick. I usually write the pick on a piece of paper and put it into a sealed envelope that stays on the refrigerator until the big game. This year is different. Since no one reads this blog, no one will see it until I say it's here.

So what team will win the Super Bowl and what team will lose?

I've looked at my usual statistics. Least points against, best run defense, best run offense, best third down conversion percentage, +/- turnover ratio, time of possession, records of opponents defeated, records of opponents lost to, where the wins and losses were played, margin of victory and defeat, and the most important after four games, won lost record.

Teams that haven't lost in the first four or five games have built good momentum for the rest of the year. This doesn't always ring true, depending on injury and late season/playoff victory runs like the Giants last year, or the Lions swan dive in the last half of the season. Generally, winning causes a better attitude that begets more winning.

Another adage to keep in mind: Offense wins games, defense wins championships. With few exceptions a good defense generally stops a great offense, the St. Louis Rams "Greatest Show on Turf" beating the Titans (on the last play and by only ONE YARD being the most recent).

Another big factor has been if the team plays home games in a dome stadium or outside. Only the St. Louis Rams and Indianapolis Colts have won the Super Bowl and played their home games under a dome. How would Dallas have done if the closed the roof at Texas Stadium?

So the result for Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa on February 1, 2009 will be:

The New York Giants over the Baltimore Ravens.

I also like to pick alternate teams for each conference guided by my gut.

Tennessee over Carolina?